Arts Wars: Episode I — “The Phantom (Menace) of the Opera”
After an unprecedented, 35-year run, The Phantom of the Opera is soon to be just that: a Phantom, a Ghost, no more. Datz right, folks. One of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s mega-hit musicals, The Phantom of the Opera, is closing on Broadway.
Was this inevitable? Or simply another casualty on the long list caused by COVID-19?
I remember reading back in 2020, when Broadway first shut down, that the bigger shows like Phantom and The Lion King would, ironically, have MORE trouble coming back than the “little guys”.
Why? Because these New York “staples” have become more like tourist traps than anything else, and since the pandemic has severely damaged tourism (both national and international), shows like these were predicted to not survive very long.
If you’re living in New York, you don’t need to go rush to see Phantom, because, like the Statue of Liberty, it’s always there! But if you’re visiting New York from out of the state or country, then you simply need to see Phantom! But a newer, up-and-coming show? That may not get the buzz across state or country lines, but it is much more likely to attract residents of New York, thus giving these shows a small leg up in times like these where tourism is still down from where it was in 2019 and not predicted to rise back to “normal” until 2024.
All of this, of course, brings one to ask the million-dollar question:
What, if any, domino effects will arise from a Goliath of a show like The Phantom of the Opera closing on Broadway?
And the billion-dollar question:
What are the pros (and cons)?
To put this all in context, we will almost certainly never see a new show that ends up being as successful as Phantom in our lifetime. In fact, even the shows still in the race are statistically not likely to surpass Phantom’s outrageous 13,517 total performances at the time of this writing.
Right now, the only shows that are remotely close are the current revival of Chicago and The Lion King. Chicago has 10,098 current performances (and is the second longest-running show in Broadway history), and The Lion King (in third place all-time) has 9,715 at the time of this writing. At about 416 performances a year, it would take Chicago about 8 years more (and keep in mind, it’s already been running for 26 years) without closing if it wanted to surpass Phantom and become the new longest-running show of all time. Of course, that’s certainly possible. But even running 8 months on Broadway is never guaranteed (Pandemic or otherwise), so 8 more years is still absolutely not a given. (And The Lion King would need closer to another full decade.)
And just to give you a better idea of how incredibly unlikely it is for a show to run 35 years, keep this in mind: besides factoring in how difficult it is and how many things need to go right to have a hit at all, imagine having the same film playing in movie theaters for more than 3 or 4 months. Let alone 3 or 4 years! And not only that, 3 or 4 years of sold-out theaters with hundreds to thousands of seats! It would never happen!
Now, obviously, live theatre gives a lot more reason to keep coming back than cinematic theatre, but it’s still the same plot that people are coming back to, albeit with different actors. So, the fact that live theatre shows last as long as they do is actually remarkable, and a beautiful testament to the work being done in by some of the greatest Artists in the world.
But I digress.
Now, what are the Cons of Phantom leaving us?
For one thing, it’s certainly a shock to the universal theatre community’s “system”. If Phantom can’t survive, how the heck can the rest of us?? Like the Royal Family in England, there is something to be said for stability in a world of chaos. Phantom, for decades, was that source of stability. (Not to mention the jobs it was providing for all those who worked on it both on and off stage, who now need to look for a new gig).
Also, let’s not forget that Broadway brings in more money to the state of New York than all of its professional sports teams combined (not the first time I’ve bragged about this number). Since the next show to take the Phantom’s spot in the Majestic Theatre almost certainly will not be as successful right off the bat, this will mean less revenue for New York, which will hurt all of the Arts (if the government doesn’t see the Arts as being lucrative, they won’t invest in it. Less money coming from the Arts means less money being invested back into the Arts).
But it can’t be all bad, right? Right??? Please, Eddie, tell me there are some Pros to all of this!
Never fret! I think there just might be some good to come out of this.
My favorite podcast, Broadway producer Ken Davenport’s “The Producer’s Perspective”, has Davenport interview the most powerful players on Broadway.
He ends every interview by asking them his “Genie Question”:
If the Genie from Aladdin could grant you one wish as a reward for your service to Broadway, what would you change about Broadway?
You know what the majority of the guests’ answers are?
Lack of real estate.
You got it. Lack of real estate. Not enough theater spaces for all of the shows ready to be on Broadway. There are only 41 total Broadway Theaters. That may sound like a lot, but there are a LOT more than 41 shows ready to take up any vacant slots.
Also, that number gets lower and lower when you get mega-hits like Phantom. For the past 35 years, Phantom has had 1/41 spots, so really, for the past 35 years there have only been 40 total open Broadway Theaters. You then throw in other mega-hits like The Lion King, Chicago, and even Hamilton, that 41 number gets lower and lower real quick.
The Majestic Theater is now new real estate opening up for the first time in as long as many of us have been alive!
It’s for this reason that I’d imagine many theater makers are secretly rejoicing at the news of Phantom closing, as well as smaller-scale hit Dear Evan Hansen (which just closed this past Sunday after a 6-year run).
Perhaps there is something to be said for “out with the old, in with the new”.
It’s only a matter of time.
What did I miss? What did I get just right? Please let me know!
And for more things Datz, check out eddiedatz.com!
